Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Change in Bima Regency, West Nusa Tenggara, from 2006 to 2016 with a Projection for 2026

Abstrak

Land use change is closely linked to population growth and human activities. Bima Regency is one of the regions that has experienced a significant population increase over the past decade. This growth has led to a corresponding rise in land demand. This pilot project aims to (1) quantify the percentage of land use change in West Bima Regency between 2006 and 2016, and (2) identify the extent of land conversion in both positive and negative directions during the same period. The method employed in this study is spatial change detection analysis. Based on land use maps from 2006 and 2016, several land cover types have shown a decrease in area, including primary dryland forest, which declined from 61,858.78 hectares (18.72%) in 2006 to 34,084.62 hectares (10.69%) in 2016. Similarly, savannas/grasslands decreased from 153,618.02 hectares (46.5%) to 115,427 hectares (36.21%), and open land declined from 11,708.81 hectares (3.54%) to 10,989.35 hectares (3.45%). Conversely, dryland agriculture experienced the most significant increase, rising by 9.83%. Secondary dryland forests also expanded by 7.23%. Additionally, settlements increased by 3,461.12 hectares (1.09%). The relatively high public awareness of forest conservation is reflected in the net land change: the total area of negative land use change (191,604.47 hectares) is considerably smaller than the total area of positive land use change (2,220,729.15 hectares).